Games of Sat September 3 - Phils Fall in Extra-Inning Heartbreaker, After Rallying for 3 runs in 9th in DC

On Saturday, I was unable to post since I had a wedding to attend up in Bucks County. After departing the wedding, I was chagrined to learn - via the complaints on WIP, to which I rarely listen because its substance on baseball isn't very good - that the Phillies had fallen 5-4 in 12 innings, also in particularly heart-rending fashion.

To wit:

The Phillies sent Eude Brito to the mound to start the game. (Most Phillies fans would probably associate the name "Eude" with the notorious, murderous son of Saddam Hussein who was killed during the war in Iraq, but he actually spelled his name "Uday").

Eude did so-so, allowing two runs in four innings before being relieved by Geoff Geary. Both Nationals runs came in the first inning, and Eude caught a break in that inning when Washington's Nick Johnson (nephew of former Phillies player and skipper Larry Bowa) was thrown out at the plate.

Unfortunately, the Phillies had no answer for Nationals starter John Patterson, who yielded only a single run, over eight innings. The lone run came on a Pat Burrell solo homer in the 2nd inning.
In the 8th, the Phils mounted a major threat (second and third with two out) against Patterson, who was lifted for Joey Eischen. With runners on second and third, Eischen walked Utley to load the bases with two outs. But he struck out Bobby Abreu on three pitches to escape the inning unscathed.

Then the bullpen (courtesy of Ryan Madson) gave up two unearned runs in the 8th, transforming a 2-1 deficit into a 4-1 score. And as such, the Phillies trailed Washington by three runs, heading into the ninth inning. I would have to look up the exact numbers, but I would estimate that the chances of victory in a game (on the road, no less) when a club trails by three runs after eight innings is probably about 1 or 2%. Thus, when closer Chad Cordero entered the game in the 9th, it looked pretty bleak...

But then Pat Burrell greeted Cordero with a single, and September call-up S. Victorino came out to run for him. Ryan Howard then blasted a two-run homer to cut it to 4-3 - and David Bell continued his torrid streak with another homer. The Phillies had just tied the game at 4-4 and still had nobody out, but they could do no more damage.

Ugueth Urbina pitched a scoreless 9th and Aaron Fultz a scoreless 10th. This is where the heartbreak part comes in...

In the top of the 11th, Gary Majewski came in for the Nationals. He struck out Howard, but then began to crumble. Bell doubled. Majewski hit Todd Pratt. Pinch-hitter Endy Chavez (acquired from Washington for Marlon Byrd) drew a walk, and so the Phillies loaded the bases with just one out.

Jimmy Rollins came to the plate and drew a 2-0 count from Majewski. Here is where the human element comes in...

There is a reasonable argument either way on what Rollins and Charlie Manuel should have done in this situation.

The argument for the green light:

You're on the road, so it's important to maximize runs. In contrast, if it had been a home game and Bell would have represented the walk-off run, there is NO argument for the green light.

Rollins is the speediest guy on the club, and as such it's extremely difficult for him to ground into an inning-ending double play. Also, any ball he puts in play to the outfield, is likely to score the go-ahead run. On a 2-0 count w/ the bases loaded, he should get a pitch he can drive. And if he gets a ball into the gap, three runs could potentially score, with Chavez's speed from first.

In summary, it's vitally important that Rollins put the ball in play, for the reasons cited above. Obviously, he's more likely to strike out if the count is 2-1 than 2-0. Thus, the green light should be given.

The argument for the take sign:

Rollins doesn't walk very often for a leadoff man and has a tendency to chase pitches. Majewski has just hit a batter and walked another one. There's a lot of pressure on him to get it over. Rollins should just take until Majewski throws a strike.

Well, for better or worse, the green light was given. Rollins hit a ground ball to first baseman Brad Wilkerson, who threw home to force out the slow-footed Bell at the plate. Kenny Lofton then grounded into a fielder's choice, forcing Rollins at second, ending the inning.

That leads to another question for second-guessing:

Should Manuel have pinch-run for Bell, after he doubled with one out?

No. He made the correct decision by leaving Bell on the basepaths.

Now if this were in any month other than September, this would be an easy question to answer. Absolutely not. Bell is a fine defensive third baseman and you still need to get three outs to win. Odds are, by the 11th you would have used up all your bench players anyhow, other than the non-playing catcher.

But it did happen in September, and with all the extra call-ups, there's less of an issue on that score. The simple question is whether the weakened defense with Matt Kata or Ramon Martinez (the only guys left on the bench who could play the infield, plus they are also a second baseman and shortstop respectively, not a 3B) playing third, would be worth the extra speed Kata or Martinez would have brought to the basepaths. In this case, I think that Manuel made the 100% correct decision, in leaving Bell out there.

At any rate, Fultz returned to the mound and pitched a perfect 11th. The Phils went down 1-2-3 in the top of the 12th, and Aquilino Lopez came in for the bottom of the inning. After retiring Deivi Cruz, Lopez walked Jose Guillen, a pitch got past Pratt that permitted Guillen to advance to scoring position. Preston Wilson then blooped a ball over Ryan Howard's head into right field, singling home Guillen with the walk-off run. The Nationals mobbed the field in celebration, and the Phillies walked off in dejection. Uggh...

Other NL Games of Interest on Saturday, September 3, 2005

Florida, trailing the Mets 4-2 in the seventh, rallied for three runs in that inning to give Jack McKeon his 1,000th career victory in Miami, 5-4.

St. Louis overcame the Astros, 4-2. Roger Clemens, who was injured and left the game after five innings, received a no-decision, while ace Chris Carpenter won his 20th game in Houston. Former Phillie Russ Springer took the loss for the Astros.

Finally, Atlanta routed the visiting Reds, 9-3, in a game which featured the 12th HR from Jeff Francoeur, a three-run shot.

So at the end of the night, here's what the two races looked like:

NL East

Atlanta 78-58 --

Philadelphia 73-63 5

NL Wild Card

Philadelphia 73-63 --

Houston 72-62 0.5

Florida 72-62 0.5

Washington 70-66 3

New York 69-66 3.5

Thus, the Phillies lost a game to Atlanta (now trailing by 5 games), but lost no ground to Houston. By definition, either the Mets or Marlins would win, and so Florida gained ground on the Phils, while the Mets gained nothing.

More to come...